This is a Single Point link, or quick commentary on the article or page linked above. (Follow the title link above to the source for full background on the commentary below).
Published on August 24, 2010 11:23 PM by dbo.
I’m surprised how much work the league has put into their own power ranking system. Great stuff for statistics junkies. Too bad that it can’t be grasped by a lot of fans and the results don’t reflect the standings, which confuses and anger fans who really just want to debate and re-imagine the standings.
The 75% predictability statement means the formula accounts for 75% of the reasons teams win games. The other 25% of the reasons don’t come from the stats used in the formula and could include things like weather conditions, injuries, the crowd or other statistical categories. So you won’t be able to use that to figure out who should win or what the score or point spread should be. If the other 25% of factors go against a #1 power ranked team, they could lose. That is sports and why they play the game. You want predictability, stick to Madden Football (though even that includes a randomness factor to appear more realistic).